The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was created in 1949 as a mutual defense treaty against the threat of a possible attack in Europe by the Soviet Union. Sixty five years later, the original 12 members, plus sixteen new members that joined after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, are meeting to consider what to do about the new Russian threat - in Ukraine.
Much of the discussion today and tomorrow will relate to article five of the NATO treaty, which says that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members.
With the end of the Cold War, NATO lost its principal reason to be, and many of its members have taken a very relaxed attitude toward their NATO commitments. That’s less true among its new members - most of whom were part of the Old Soviet Union or of NATO’s counter-part - the Warsaw Pact. But Russia’s actions in Ukraine have been a wake-up call to all, and the current meeting in Wales is to re-establish credibility to article five.
As the New York Times reported this morning, “NATO is expected to endorse a rapid-reaction force of 4,000 troops capable of deploying at 48 hours’ notice, (It will be) supported with logistics and equipment pre-positioned in eastern European countries closer to Russia, (and) with an upgraded schedule of military exercises and deployments. (These) are intended to make NATO’s commitment of collective defense more credible and enhance its deterrence.”
This will be good news to the small, Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia which were invaded and annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940. They are feeling particularly vulnerable, as they have watched Russian President Vladimir Putin’s technique in Ukraine. The pretext for his actions - first in Crimea and now in eastern Ukraine - is that Russia is simply protecting the rights of Russian speakers. The Baltic states have many Russian speakers - who are increasingly targets of heavy propaganda from Moscow.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO and so is not covered by article five. So whatever Putin does there, will not trigger any direct military response from NATO. Nevertheless, Russia’s actions in Ukraine are seen as a clear threat to European security. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is in Wales where he will give members his version of Putin’s latest peace plan. Early reports indicate that plan is not likely to head off NATO member’s serious consideration of tougher economic sanctions against Russia – and tangible support for major upgrades of the Ukrainian military.
Finally, the newest threat to the Middle East and some NATO members posed by the terrorist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is getting plenty of attention in Wales. President Obama says it is America’s objective to “degrade and destroy” these Muslim militants. To that end, he is trying to build an international coalition. But it is not yet clear which allies are willing to help – and with what means.
