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Explore our coverage of government and politics.

Outside Money May Play Outsized Role In 2016 Gubernatorial Race

Secretary of State Jim Condos wants to make it easier for Vermonters to appeal a denial of a public records request
Peter Hirschfeld
/
VPR file
Vermont Secretary of State Jim Condos says improvements on his office's website will make it easier for Vermonters to track the flow of outside money into state elections.

The 2016 election is still more than a year away. But political action committees are already lining up to get in on the action, and outside money could play an unprecedented role in determining who serves as the next governor of Vermont.

Outside money isn’t anything new in Vermont politics. Groups like the Republican Governors Association and Democratic Governors Association poured nearly $2 million into the state the last time Vermont had an open seat for governor. The $4 million spent in total on the general campaign for governor back in 2010 set a new high-dollar mark in Vermont politics.

But that may pale in comparison to the outside investments in the coming election cycle, according to watchdogs and political operatives following the race.

“I think in 2016 we’ll see an almost doubling of the total amount spent in the gubernatorial election than we did in 2010 … because I think we’re going to have a larger number of independent groups playing a role beyond the RGA and DGA, which were really the only players in 2010,” says Todd Bailey, a partner at the Statehouse lobbying firm KSE Partners. The firm has helped numerous clients try to maximize their influence in political races.

Two dozen political action committeeshave registered with the Secretary of State’s office in the last two weeks alone. They represent the interests of specific companies, like Honeywell, Coca-Cola and RJ Reynolds Tobacco. They also represent labor unions, political parties, and groups pushing specific causes.

Yet to arrive in large numbers are the independent-expenditure-only committees, those creatures of unlimited spending potential spawned by the Supreme Court's Citizen’s United ruling in 2010.

Denise Roth Barber, managing director of the National Institute on Money in State Politics, says it’s only a matter of time before they’re here, “especially when there’s an open race.”

“It’s very hard in general to unseat an incumbent,” Barber says. “But when races are open it’s much more fair game.”

"I think in 2016 we'll see an almost doubling of the total amount spent in the gubernatorial election than we did in 2010." - Todd Bailey, partner at lobbying firm KSE Partners

Barber says national groups representing partisan or corporate interests are increasingly drawn to state-level politics, where they’re often able to advance policy agendas in a more expedient manner.

“And also, state races are also kind of cheap dates,” Barber says. “Especially in Vermont, where not a lot of money is spent, it doesn’t take that much money to influence the outcome of an election.”

Bailey says the RGA and DGA will be particularly invested in the outcome of the governor’s race.

“And if the RGA can pick that up, that’s a huge win for them, not just because they have another state, but because their messaging nationally … resonates just a little bit further if they can say there’s a Republican governor in the bluest state in the country,” Bailey said.

“And the flip side of that is that the DGA must defend the bluest state in the country. They want to say they continue to hold that seat after six years of Gov. Shumlin," Bailey added.

Money doesn’t necessarily translate to political success. This state’s first Super PAC arrived on the scene back in 2012, when Burlington heiress Lenore Broughton spent $1 million of her own money to push Republican candidates for the House and Senate. The GOP lost seats in both chambers that year.

But Secretary of State Jim Condos says late-race cash from an out-of-state conservative group likely helped with GOP pick-ups in 2014.

“And (the group) dropped I think roughly $300,000 on House races, and I’m sure that that had a significant impact,” Condos said.

Given federal legal precedent, there isn’t much the state can do in the short term to mitigate the flow of outside money into state races. Condos says what state officials can do is enforce disclosure.

“It comes down to, where’s the money coming from? How’s it being spent? And who’s it supporting?” Condos said.

Condos says the secretary of state web site now includes search functions that will give Vermonters easier access to the answers to all of those questions.

The Vermont Statehouse is often called the people’s house. I am your eyes and ears there. I keep a close eye on how legislation could affect your life; I also regularly speak to the people who write that legislation.
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